Quick Free Agent Update and introducing the Automated Free Agency Scorecard

Posted on 08/09/2010 by

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“Mine eye and heart are at a mortal war

How to divide the conquest of thy sight;

Mine eye my heart thy picture’s sight would bar,

My heart mine eye the freedom of that right.”

-Shakespeare  Sonnet 46

Often in life, when we love or are passionate about something that colors our perception and prevents dispassionate analysis. What you feels colors what the analysis tells you. Sports is an area were this is particularly true. When it comes to basketball,  I am a very  passionate person and perhaps that can get in the way of a dispassionate rational evaluation of the game. Mine eye and my heart are at mortal war. Passion tend to cloud statistical analysis. For the NBA Free Agency Guide, I’ve decided a truce is in order. Passion will still feature but I will add Statistics to the mix.

Here then is my Free Agent guide updated with two sets of evaluations. The first is my passionate perspective, the second is a straightforward & systemic analysis of the numbers (an automated scorecard). The updated Free Agent Guide is here. As before, the table included all player options, restricted and unrestricted free agents and all players with ridiculous ETO’s  that did not exercise (like Jason Kapono). I’m including Tmac  to Detroit as well.

Updated Winners & Losers

Here’s my quick table on winners and losers. Top 10 in green, next ten in yellow and everyone else in red :

My Quick Thoughts & Grades by Team (the heart’s part) :

The order for the teams is based on the value over market.

  1. Miami: Since my first review their roster actually improved. 14 players for about $76 million per year that netted an average of 78 wins per year for the last three years. Again, wow,just wow. The haters really need to recognize. My Grade: Eleventy
  2. Chicago: The Bulls did not get exactly what they wanted but they still massively upgraded. Chicago went four out of six (Korver is marginal). 6 players for about $32 million per year that netted an average of 32 wins per year for the last three years. My Grade: A+
  3. Detroit: Detroit kept Ben Wallace and four of their current players. They may add T-mac cheap. That’s real forward looking. 5 players for about $10.5 million per year that netted an average of 17 wins per year for the last three years. My Grade: B for good value but not enough
  4. Phoenix: Classic Suns pantsing the league on Childress and cutting payroll. Adding Warrick as well more than replaces the value lost when Amare left.  The only reason I withhold an A is Frye. Looking at their roster they may not be done yet. 4 players for about $20 million per year that netted an average of 19 wins per year for the last three years. My Grade: B+ for now
  5. Golden State : A forum on whether or not you like David Lee. Dorell Wright is good. Pargo is very,very,very,very bad . 3 players for about $18 million per year that netted an average of 18 wins per year for the last three years. My Grade: B-, no selection bias here but really Pargo?!?!?
  6. Orlando: The Magic keep bringing in average (.100 WP48 players). Great for the regular season not so much for the playoff.  4 players for about $13.6 million per year that netted an average of 15 wins per year for the last three years My Grade: C- for not doing enough to win a title
  7. Lakers: As a Celtics fan, #$#%% #@%@@!!!! And they stole a guy in the 2nd round of the draft (Caracter). The Kobe deal (not included on the list as it happened in-season) could be the turd in the punch bowl in the future. The Shannon Brown deal is a rare misstep this off-season.  5 players for about $13 million per year that netted an average of 13 wins per year for the last three years. My Grade: A-
  8. Houston: Better than it looks. Yao re-upping for one year is worth a hundred million easy to that franchise. 6 players for about $47 million per year that netted an average of 33 wins per year for the last three years. My Grade: B- (Jared Jeffries makes it so, because he’s no good)
  9. Boston: Better on paper. I heart Pierce & Allen but they sure are creaky. Love me some pocket kryptonite. Jermaine O’Neal? Just Ugh! The Rondo deal (again not counted in the total as it happened in-season) & Shaq at the veteran Minimum keeps a passing grade. I’m hoping the Rudy Fernandez thing is true, oh please, pretty please.  6 players for about $39 million per year that netted an average of 27 wins per year for the last three years. My Grade: C+ for My Creaky Celtics (see here for their new theme song)
  10. Portland: Matthews is good but they need minutes for him. 2 players for about $14 million per year that netted an average of 10 wins per year for the last three years. My Grade: Incomplete pending whatever trade they make.
  11. Cleveland :Pretty much no one is walking through that door. Blow it up and build through the draft. 2 players for about $2 million per year that netted an average of 3 wins per year for the last three years. My Grade: E for bad times on Lake Erie
  12. Washington : Same as Cleveland,pretty much no one is walking through that door. Dan Gilbert take note, this team has already blown it up and is building through the draft. 1 players for about $4 million per year that netted an average of 3 wins per year for the last three years. My Grade: B because the first step is to accept that we are powerless
  13. Toronto:Meh. 3 players for about $12 million per year that netted an average of 8 wins per year for the last three years My Grade: D for doubt they’ll make the playoffs
  14. Milwakee: Sneaky. Makes a good team, slightly better and deeper. Fell some Anxiety about the Deer! 3 players for about $15 million per year that netted an average of 9 wins per year for the last three years My Grade: B- for Bucks
  15. Knicks: New York deserves and will get their own post. I will say that by breaking even they lapped the regime of Lord Thomas. They were doing so well and then they went to a past best left forgotten.  3 players for about $29 million per year that netted an average of 17 wins per year for the last three years My Grade: D- (C for the moves, -15 for Isiah, they passed but barely.) Go here for the full review
  16. San Antonio: Love the Splitter deal at a minimum it gives them flexibility and saves Duncan for the playoffs at a maximum it sets them up for a dogfight with OKC and the Lakers for the West crown for the next few years. Don’t like the Jefferson deal.3 players for about $17 million per year that netted an average of 10 wins per year for the last three years My Grade: B for split returns
  17. Clippers : A lot of sound and fury signifying nothing. 4 players for about $11.6 million per year that netted an average of 6 wins per year for the last three years My Grade: C- for same old Clippers
  18. Utah : Didn’t this team move to Chicago?  2 players for about $2 million per year that netted an average of 0 wins per year for the last three years My Grade: F for abseentism
  19. OKC : Not a lot done. Presti thinks he has a good hand. Flipped players for picks.1 players for about $1 million per year that netted an average of 0 wins per year for the last three years  My Grade: We will C about Cole
  20. Pacers : Anytime you can overpay for a point guard you gotta do it right? (and to offset any possible bad karma, Larry Bird is the greatest player ever) . 1 players for about $8.5 million per year that netted an average of 4 wins per year for the last three years  My Grade: F for F$%^ if I know what he’s thinking
  21. Kings : Anytime you can bring in a defensive stopper from one of the worst defensive teams in the league you gotta do it right? 1 players for about $1 million per year that netted an average of -1 wins per year for the last three years. My Grade: MalooF
  22. Nets: Throwing some good money after bad. They’re getting a new GM though 7 players for about $25 million per year that netted an average of 12 wins per year for the last three years.My Grade: C- comrade
  23. Charlotte: Sneaky. Young above average PF on the cheap (Thomas). Could be good but they need to start him. Shaun Livingston gives them an A for me.  3 players for about $18 million per year that netted an average of 8 wins per year for the last three years. My Grade: A for Air
  24. Atlanta : Question, what Free Agent contracts were signed that were immediately untradeable? Answer: Joe Johnson & Rudy Gay. 3 players for about $23 million per year that netted an average of 11 wins per year for the last three years.  Grade: Z for Zombie franchise killer contracts.
  25. Dallas: Cuban seem to delight at paying full price on day old cheese. Yes it tastes good now but pretty they’re past the expiration date. 4 players for about $43 million per year that netted an average of 22 wins per year for the last three years.  Grade: D for Dirk is Dissapoint
  26. Denver: Meh again. 4 players for about $25 million per year that netted an average of 11 wins per year for the last three years.  My Grade: D
  27. Memphis: At least Atlanta got some wins out of the deal. 2 players for about $20 million per year that netted an average of 3 wins per year for the last three years.   Grade: Omega
  28. Minnesota:KHHHHHHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAANNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 4 players for about $28 million per year that netted an average of 6 wins per year for the last three years.   Grade: F-

  29. 76ers : The Sixers payed good money to get worse. 3 players for about $12 million per year that netted an average of -4 wins per year for the last three years.   My Grade: Divide by zero
  30. Hornets: The URL Free Chris Paul is still available as we speak. 3 players for about $22 million per year that netted an average of 2 wins per year for the last three years My Grade: H for Hopeless Hornets
  31. Get it now!

Automated Scorecard (with clear eyes):

Now we come to the automated scorecard. Here I’m letting the numbers do the talking. I ‘m looking at net wins acquired and how much was paid per win. I am normalizing for wins & paid (while treating Miami as an outlier (or the grades get ridiculous)) and adding the scores. I then rank the teams by score and use percentile to score them. The automated rankings look like this:

Not completely dispassionate mind you

Miami and Chicago remain numbers one and two. The big gainers are Denver (to the middle of the pack), Dallas  to number six (yes Cuban overpaid but he overpaid for something see Utah for an example) and the Nets to number 13. As for who were the the big losers? Washington, Utah and Cleveland make perfect sense as the big droppers. It does also like the Celtics and Rockets more than just looking at plain value over market.

I hope that this post has achieved the balance that I strove for . As this is a new tool, please feel free to make suggestions. Till tomorrow.

Note: A bright reader pointed out that there is an error in the Michael Redd Contract (blame excel autotype). It makes Khan look a tiny bit better and the Redd contract hurt the Deer. I correct it here (and made some decent jokes)

Posted in: NBA Free Agency