Browsing All Posts published on »August, 2010«

Build me a winner rev. 1

August 31, 2010 by

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“All right, what do we think? What do we know? What can we prove?” -And the Band Played On Friend of the blog, Andres Alvarez (He of nerdnumbers & Automated Wins Produced) comments: Arturo, Loving it! So as a GM would you agree with the following strategy. Find a superstar player, position doesn’t matter but […]

30 to 16 to 1:(Part 12) Kryptonite

August 31, 2010 by

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The Basics: 30 to 16 to 1. Based on a half baked notion, that since the true goal of any NBA season is to turn thirty teams into one champion and as we saw in my earlier piece, what wins in the regular season is not necessarily what  gets you the trophy, my 2010 Playoff […]

A Sunday Kind of Piece: Sources of Error in Predicting the Future Wins in the NBA (Part 2)

August 29, 2010 by

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“You came in with the breeze On Sunday Morning You sure have changed since yesterday Without any warning I thought I knew you I thought I knew you I thought I knew you well… so well” -Sunday Morning by No Doubt It’s  Sunday morning  and readers of this blog know what this could mean: No […]

30 to 16 to 1:(Part 11) The Rising or Setting Sun?

August 28, 2010 by

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The Basics: 30 to 16 to 1. Based on a half baked notion, that since the true goal of any NBA season is to turn thirty teams into one champion and as we saw in my earlier piece, what wins in the regular season is not necessarily what  gets you the trophy, my 2010 Playoff […]

The Worst 30 NBA teams since the Merger

August 24, 2010 by

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In the comments for the previous post (The Best NBA Teams since the merger: Take 1) Reader Chicago Tim asks: Speaking of which, I would be interested in a list of the 30 worst teams since the merger. No need for a part 2, since none of them made the playoffs. Given that we love […]

The Best NBA teams since the Merger: Take1

August 23, 2010 by

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Who’s  the best basketball team of all time? This is a question that’s guaranteed to spark animated and passionate discussion among all fans of the NBA. The numbers tell us one thing but our heart argues another. But at the end of the day we are left with no clear and definitive answers. But with […]

30 to 16 to 1: 2010 NBA Playoffs review (Half Baked-Style) & Predicting the playoffs

August 22, 2010 by

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For the past month I’ve been working my way through every team in the NBA Playoffs based on my half-baked notion about the difference between the Regular season in the NBA and the Playoffs. This post is meant to provide a guide to the series that I will update as I complete it (i’ll also […]

30 to 16 to 1:(Pt. 10 Rnd2): This is the End

August 21, 2010 by

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The Basics: 30 to 16 to 1. Based on a half baked notion, that since the true goal of any NBA season is to turn thirty teams into one champion and as we saw in my earlier piece, what wins in the regular season is not necessarily what  gets you the trophy, my 2010 Playoff […]

Fanservice (NBA underrated/overrated for 2009 Revisited)

August 19, 2010 by

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Reader Fred Bush asks: “Love your blog. Now, how about connecting the “replacement player” stats to salary? Sort all NBA players by 2010 salary, then compare their stats to replacement-level players at their position, and “replacement-level” salaries. See who’s the biggest bargain/who’s the most overpaid.” We’re all about fanservice here and flattery gets you everywhere. […]

30 to 16 to 1:(Pt. 9 Rnd2): The Forgettable Jazz

August 18, 2010 by

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The Basics: 30 to 16 to 1. Based on a half baked notion, that since the true goal of any NBA season is to turn thirty teams into one champion and as we saw in my earlier piece, what wins in the regular season is not necessarily what  gets you the trophy, my 2010 Playoff […]

Introducing WORP (Wins over Replacement Player)

August 17, 2010 by

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“Surely some revelation is at hand; Surely the Second Coming is at hand. The Second Coming! Hardly are those words out When a vast image out of Spiritus Mundi Troubles my sight: somewhere in sands of the desert” -Yeats, The second Coming Over the course of the last week I have been troubled by an […]

The Top 30 Replacement Level Players at the Age of 23,24 & 25

August 16, 2010 by

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In the previous post I decided on an algorithm for determining Replacement Level players as follows: Step #1 : Sort player by years and minutes played total for that season. This is the ultimate assertion of the perceived value of a player to a team. Step#2:  For each position, find the players with the least […]

The Value of Replacement Level in the NBA rev.2: Improving the Algorithm

August 16, 2010 by

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“Sometimes when I talk to journalism students and they will ask how I get people to open up to me, and the answer is that I’m genuinely curious about what those people are saying. I honestly care about the stories they are telling. There’s a force that talks to the deepest part of us. There […]

Quick Free Agent Update: Of their own volition

August 14, 2010 by

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In my previous free agent update reader Austin commented: “I don’t think it makes sense to include player ETOs that were not exercised (if I understand correctly that you are including those now). The free agency scorecard should only include voluntary decisions by the team.” My response was to nod my head in agreement. Voluntary […]

Measuring the Value of Replacement Level in the NBA

August 13, 2010 by

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As a sports stat-head,  one of the great joys of summer is when I get my hands on the Football Outsiders Football Almanac. It’s a fantastic analysis of the in and outs of a complex sport. It also affords amateur statisticians like myself  a window into the construction and evolution of a a statistical toolbox […]

Age & Productivity Model for the NBA Revisited

August 12, 2010 by

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I put up a post earlier today on the 4 and a half team trade that took place today. Reader Tom Mandel asks: I agree with your analysis — hard not to. Also, as usual, your framing is witty and entertaining. I love that freechrispaul.com is still available! Yet, can you tell me — methodologically […]

Evaluating a Four (and a Half) Team Trade

August 11, 2010 by

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Multiple team trades in the NBA are not common events. Four team trades are a rarity. Four team trades with a fifth team involved in the periphery are as rare as championships in Cleveland. So today’s Pacers-Hornets-Rockets-Nets with a little Raptors on the side partty presents a unique opportunity to break out my analysis toolbox […]

30 to 16 to 1:(Pt. 8 Rnd2 San Antonio Spurs): The Forgotten Kings

August 10, 2010 by

3

The Basics: 30 to 16 to 1. Based on a half baked notion, that since the true goal of any NBA season is to turn thirty teams into one champion and as we saw in my earlier piece, what wins in the regular season is not necessarily what  gets you the trophy, my 2010 Playoff […]

Quick Free Agent Update and introducing the Automated Free Agency Scorecard

August 9, 2010 by

19

“Mine eye and heart are at a mortal war How to divide the conquest of thy sight; Mine eye my heart thy picture’s sight would bar, My heart mine eye the freedom of that right.” -Shakespeare  Sonnet 46 Often in life, when we love or are passionate about something that colors our perception and prevents […]

A Sunday Kind of Piece: Sources of Error in Predicting the Future Wins in the NBA

August 8, 2010 by

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“I want a Sunday kind of love A love to last past Saturday night And I’d like to know it’s more than love at first sight And I want a Sunday kind of love Oh yea yea” One of my favorite things when I was young was the Sunday paper. I loved the size of […]

30 to 16 to 1:(Part Seven) Gilding a Turd

August 7, 2010 by

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The Basics: 30 to 16 to 1. Based on a half baked notion, that since the true goal of any NBA season is to turn thirty teams into one champion and as we saw in my earlier piece, what wins in the regular season is not necessarily what  gets you the trophy, my 2010 Playoff […]

ASLS Vault: Isiah and the folly of the Knicks organization

August 6, 2010 by

2

Given the stunning news that the New York Knicks have re-hired Isiah Thomas as a consultant I decided to repost my 7/12 /2010 piece on the subject. Enjoy. I got up this morning, made myself some breakfast, sat with my lovely wife on the couch and put on ESPN. Then it happened, the news item […]

Oldie but goodie

August 6, 2010 by

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On Wednesday,  Henry Abbott of Truehoop and ESPN offered the following bet/prediction: (Darko) Milicic will help his team more than (Shaquille) O’Neal will this upcoming season. Mr. Abbott based his argument mostly on relative age and minute allocation and he challenged someone to take the opposing viewpoint for a friendly public wager. When I first […]

30 to 16 to 1:(Part 6) Excel-Based Heroes

August 5, 2010 by

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The Basics: 30 to 16 to 1. Based on a half baked notion, that since the true goal of any NBA season is to turn thirty teams into one champion and as we saw in my earlier piece, what wins in the regular season is not necessarily what  gets you the trophy, my 2010 Playoff […]

30 to 16 to 1:(Part Five) Triple A Ball in Denver

August 4, 2010 by

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The Basics: 30 to 16 to 1. Based on a half baked notion, that since the true goal of any NBA season is to turn thirty teams into one champion and as we saw in my earlier piece, what wins in the regular season is not necessarily what  gets you the trophy, my 2010 Playoff […]

Mass Free Agent Upgrade & Making Knicks Fans Happy

August 3, 2010 by

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So Chicago Tim asks: Can you plug that into the free agency report so the Bulls get credit for a good deal? You can thank him for this post. Oh and go check out my Knicks review on Wages of Wins Note: A sharp eyed Clipper Fan noticed I had a player missing. I added […]

30 to 16 to 1:(Parte Cuatro) The Future should have been Now

August 3, 2010 by

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(All numbers used in this post come from Andres Alvarez wonderful Automated Wins Produced website and database. Andres deserves full credit for my ability to do my playoff analysis in a relatively quick timeframe) The Basics: 30 to 16 to 1. Based on a half baked notion, that since the true goal of any NBA […]

Playoff Performers in the NBA

August 2, 2010 by

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(All numbers used in this post come from Andres Alvarez wonderful Automated Wins Produced website and database. Andres deserves full credit for my ability to do my playoff analysis in a relatively quick timeframe) (Note#1: A sharp eyed reader noticed that I’m missing some teams on the data. I will work on addressing this in […]

30 to 16 to 1:(Part Three) The Powers To Be

August 1, 2010 by

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30 to 16 to 1. Based on a half baked notion, that since the true goal of any NBA season is to turn thirty teams into one champion and as we saw in my earlier piece, what wins in the regular season is not necessarily what  gets you the trophy, my 2010 Playoff Review series […]

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