Browsing All Posts published on »July, 2010«

30 to 16 to 1:(Part Deux) An Inglorious Blaze

July 31, 2010 by


30 to 16 to 1. Based on a half baked notion, that since the true goal of any NBA season is to turn thirty teams into one champion and as we saw in my earlier piece, what wins in the regular season is not necessarily what  gets you the trophy, my 2010 Playoff Review series […]

30 to 16 to 1: A Half Baked Review of the NBA Playoffs

July 30, 2010 by


30 to 16. When looking at the NBA, we typically focus our energy on what happens in the regular season to turn thirty regular season teams  into 16 playoff teams. This is perfectly understandable but I believe it misses the point somewhat. 16 to 1. The true goal of any NBA season is to turn […]

The Short Supply of Tall People revisited

July 29, 2010 by


This post started as a response to the two of the commenters on the previous post. As I neared 400 words and started to think about adding some tables I decided to make it it’s own post. Enjoy. When I was first exposed to Wins Produced (see detail here), I did not immediately agree with […]

WP48 Tables by Minute Allocation and some Updates

July 28, 2010 by


First off some administrative detail, the Free agent Guide is updated. Reader Alex asks: Arturo – I’m having a little trouble I’m hoping you can help me with.  Let’s say I’m the 10th man on an average team; the team wins 41 games during the season.  I earn 1% of the teams wins, which is […]

Why Tracy McGrady is worth another shot

July 27, 2010 by


Over the last few days there has been much ado about Tracy McGrady and where and if he’s going to play. Media outlets have run with the story, in my opinion unfairly, how he is more trouble than he’s worth at this point in his career. There has been much hand-wringing around his departure from […]

A Half Baked Notion about the difference between the Regular Season and the Playoffs

July 26, 2010 by


The first post I ever wrote for the Wages of Win network was about my beloved Celtics and how people should not be surprised by their success against the Cavaliers (see here). One of the key points in the article was that minute allocation and inefficient use of resources by their coach Mike Brown was […]

The Worst Team since the merger

July 25, 2010 by


Computer crashes. A long holiday weekend. A random flash flood in a shopping mall parking lot. Forgetting your ipod at work. A last minute decision to visit the in-laws. All seemingly unrelated events that lead to the present state of reality where I’m sitting in my mother in-law’s house on my wife’s computer writing a […]

Quick Post with more draft tables

July 24, 2010 by


shawnfuryan asks: Any you could post the first table as a google doc so we can play around with it? Here you go We aim to please here. Tonight I either finish the Worst team post or do one on best prospects in the league (football outsiders style).

Value of a Draft Pick and Changing Value in the NBA draft

July 24, 2010 by


Quick note the Free Agent Guide is updated I originally had a long post on the Worst Team since the merger but events and a computer crash have forced me to delay that for this weekend. However, I have a goal. 365 days, 365 posts. To that end I will move up a post on […]

Fan Service, More Draft Fun and 1st Year Impact Rookies

July 23, 2010 by


Reader Jimbo Comments in the last draft post: “Arturo – love the work of wages of wins and the network. I was a little suprised to see my favourite player Manu Ginobili so low on the list, and I think I’ve figured out why – the “average” WP scores for the 57th pick are the […]

Ranking Thirty Years of Draft Picks

July 22, 2010 by


This post was originally intended as part of a series on the NBA draft for the Wages of Win Journal . It began life as a long e-mail conversation between Andres Alvarez, Prof.Berri and myself.  It grew into multiple pieces in the Wages of Win Journal, a Wall street Journal Article and this blog. The […]

Tiago Splitter, Marc Gasol and a Quick Free Agent update

July 21, 2010 by


I wanted o write a quick post to update the Free Agent table (see here, Updated Free Agent Guide)  and  address the under the radar move that could potentially swing the west, The San Antonio Spurs signing of  the reigning Spanish League MVP, Tiago Splitter. So far I’ve left him off any free agent tables […]

Predictive Stats, Bad Metrics & Correlation in the NBA

July 20, 2010 by


In my work life, I prepare metrics for a living. I spend a lot of time sifting through data and trying to create effective and sustainable models to turn it into information. This information is then used to run large manufacturing facilities that make products that save people’s lives. Creating a metric or a model […]

Measuring the Quality of Basketball in the NBA Take 2: Adjusting for Pace

July 19, 2010 by


In the comments for the previous post on Measuring the Quality of Basketball in the NBA Commenter Dan said: “I don’t think this kind of analysis makes sense. What you’re calling higher average team productivity probably just reflects factors like a faster leaguewide pace, higher scoring per possession, and maybe trends in some specific statistics. […]

Measuring the Quality of Basketball in the NBA

July 17, 2010 by


Note: I know I said I was doing a post on Regression and then the Knicks but my muse really is insistent and hates schedules.Those posts are coming though. Basketball pundits spend a lot of time arguing about the quality of one NBA season versus another. We hear about the 80′s being a golden age […]

Free Agent Early Wrap

July 16, 2010 by


(Updated 7/17 Midnight EST-Damn you Joel Anthony!) As of now about 60% (260 wins) of the projected wins available (410 Wins) on the Free Agent market are off the board. So I felt it was a good time to update the table and put down some early thoughts. First off, The Updated Free Agent Guide […]

Statistical Oddities and the Worst of the Worst

July 16, 2010 by


Over the past few months, I’ve been looking at and playing with the Wins Produced database from 1977 on. There are many many stories there but for this post I want to focus on minutea, weirdness and the worst of the worst. One thing that fascinated me when I looked at the data is players […]

NBA Stat Geek Fan Service

July 15, 2010 by


Shanwnfurryan (see his blog here his draft analysis is to die for) asks : “You know how everyone says you can’t compare Byrd and, say for instance, Lebron, because they played in different eras. I wonder if that applies here. I want to say that the answer is possibly no because by comparing AdjP48, we […]

The Talent Pool and Marginal Value in the NBA

July 14, 2010 by


One of the most commonly held truths in the NBA is the following: “You need the big man to win” . This  illustrates to me that the perception of value  by position in the NBA is fixed. The fixed nature of this notion to me is disconsonant with the way markets work in the real […]

A Fun Table for you to play with (Every NBA Player’s Best Year)

July 14, 2010 by


So tonight I’m crazy busy working late preparing a 52 slide metrics deck for work. Given that rather than publishing a brand new post, I decided to post a nice fun data set (and it’s a follow-up even): Peak Years in Wins for All Players with at least ten Year’s Experience in the NBA (Started […]

Peak Age in the NBA and the miracles of Modern Medicine

July 13, 2010 by


Earlier today, one of my articles was linked by Matthew Yglesias on his wonderful Blog. While I agree with most of what he said one of his comments there inspired this post. Specifically: “NBA player performance peaks, on average, at age 25 which means that with the exception of rookies signing their first contract extension […]

Free Agency Winners and Losers so far

July 12, 2010 by


Quick Post on Free agency: Updated the Free Agency Cheat Sheet. Added a quick table on winners and losers based on value added over market for next year: Miami is not a surprise but GSW are . As for PHO and LAL, well the rich always find a way to get richer. A post on […]

Isiah and the folly of the Knicks organization

July 12, 2010 by


I got up this morning, made myself some breakfast, sat with my lovely wife on the couch and put on ESPN. Then it happened, the news item that shook my faith and made me start choking on my Cream of Wheat. This. Donnie Walsh says Isiah Thomas is a candidate for GM of the Knicks. […]

Why Pat Riley is Playing Chess

July 11, 2010 by


So in the comment for the previous post Chicago Tim asked “I thought Miami had Bird rights for Udonis Haslem because they worked out sign-and-trades for Bosh and LeBron. What happens if you put Haslem in place of Wallace and Williams?” This comment and the post on the Miami Heat cap got me thinking about […]

Challenge of the Superfriends

July 10, 2010 by


I wanted to follow up my quick cap post from yesterday. I learned more about Capology in a day than I ever really wanted to. It’s time to put that to use. I’m going to play at the oracle and try to read Pat Riley’s mind.As of now if I had to pick a likely […]

Miami Heat CAP for Dummies

July 10, 2010 by


Super Quick Post: That means after Mike Miller takes $25 million /5.8= $4.31 million off the Heat will have about another $4.71 mill a year to split between two guys before going to min salaries. Note: This work is the result of a lot of questions answered by Larry Coon on twitter. Here’s his excellent […]

Scrubs can get some love

July 9, 2010 by


Just wanted to put a quick post up with some notes: The Free Agency guide is updated Can I interest you in a list of Prospective Minimum Salary Players? I count 35 guys who could be prospective free agents. If the Heat keep their guys they have : Player Team Proj Min Avg WP48 Adjusted […]

A Challenge from Prof. Berri

July 9, 2010 by


Prof. Dave Berri of The Wages of Wins asks in a comment to a post: “Here is an interesting thought experiment… are there available free agents who could sink the ship in Miami? In other words, could Miami hire a collection of negative wins producers and ruin the entire show?” Here’s my quick answer (I’m […]

Fact checking the ESPN ticker

July 8, 2010 by


“Computer Simulation projects Heat to go 66-16 next season (No.1 Seed in the East) Chances of winning NBA title:35.3 pct (60 pct with home court advantage) (Simulation based on Roster of James,Wade,Bosh, Michael Beasley and Mario Chalmers, with bench equivalent to 9th or 10th men on typical NBA roster)” This golden nugget of analysis was […]

Starting to go Crazy from the Heat

July 8, 2010 by


The internet is abuzz with LBJ to the Heat to Miami talk. As I’ve stated before this alone will not make the Heat a championship contender. However there is another rumor floating around about Mike Miller (an underrated free-agent) getting an MLE offer from Miami. This totally changes my opinion on the Heat. Here’s the […]


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